Trader Toolkit · Module 6 · Premium

Trade Hypothesis Builder

Not signals — scenarios. When the modules disagree, this tool turns the dislocation into a structured hypothesis: evidence, explicit invalidation conditions and an honest confidence score.

This tool never says buy or sell. It produces structured, falsifiable research hypotheses: the claim, the evidence, the exact conditions that would prove it wrong, and an evidence-weight score. What you do with a hypothesis — including nothing — is your decision, made with your own research and, where appropriate, a regulated adviser.

Relative value — product cracksactiveOpened 2026-07-04

Hypothesis: Diesel cracks are undervalued relative to refinery outage risk

Evidence

1.Refinery outage alerts rising — Rotterdam has removed 400 kb/d of European crude runs, with duration uncertainty skewed longer. Module 4 · News-to-Barrels strong
2.Distillate stocks below seasonal average — the cushion for absorbing a supply loss is thin. Module 1 · Balance Engine strong
3.Freight into Europe tightening — clean MR rates firming as replacement barrels get pulled across the Atlantic. Module 2 · Flow Map moderate
4.The diesel crack has not repriced — still marked cheap and loosening despite the above; managed money near record short adds squeeze fuel. Modules 3 & 5 · Curve + Positioning strong

Invalidation — this hypothesis is wrong if:

The Rotterdam refinery returns earlier than expected (restart inside two weeks).
Distillate stocks build for two consecutive weeks.
Freight into Europe normalises (clean MR rates give back the move).

Confidence (evidence weight)68%

Evidence-weight score — not a probability of profit, not a signal.

Three strong and one moderate evidence leg; the offset is that diesel demand itself remains genuinely weak (the crack can stay cheap if the outage resolves quickly). Score reflects evidence weight, not probability of profit.

Instruments to research (not recommendations)

ICE Gasoil futuresNY Harbor Heating Oil (HO)Diesel crack spread (gasoil vs Brent)

Risk note: Crowded-short squeezes are violent but brief — timing risk is high, and a fast refinery restart removes the entire thesis.

Structure — timespreadsactiveOpened 2026-07-04

Hypothesis: Brent's 6-month backwardation is overpriced relative to Atlantic physical length

Evidence

1.West African loadings 2.3σ above the 30-day norm with unsold cargoes rerouting — physical length building in the Atlantic Basin. Module 2 · Flow Map strong
2.The WAF→Asia freight-adjusted arb is negative — the barrels have no natural eastern home at current prices. Module 3 · Curve Dashboard moderate
3.Brent M1/M7 marked expensive and contradicted by physical — the only spread on the board with that combination. Module 3 · Curve Dashboard strong
4.Managed money heavily long Brent at the 82nd percentile — the exit is crowded if the deferred story cracks. Module 5 · Positioning moderate

Invalidation — this hypothesis is wrong if:

August WAF loading programmes are revised down materially.
Chinese buying resumes and clears the overhang (discharge activity re-accelerates).
Floating storage draws for two consecutive weeks instead of building.

Confidence (evidence weight)61%

Evidence-weight score — not a probability of profit, not a signal.

The prompt tightness is real (stock draws), so this is strictly a deferred-structure hypothesis — the front of the curve is not in question. Evidence-weight score only.

Instruments to research (not recommendations)

ICE Brent calendar spreads (M1/M7)Brent CFDs / Dated structure (professional market)WAF grade differentials

Risk note: OPEC+ rhetoric can steepen backwardation abruptly regardless of Atlantic fundamentals — event risk cuts both ways.

Cross-asset — freight / equities research thememonitoringOpened 2026-07-02

Hypothesis: Compliant tanker earnings strength is structural, not a spot blip

Evidence

1.TD3C firm at +1.2σ with flat cargo counts — the move is fleet-supply driven, which persists; demand blips don't. Module 2 · Flow Map moderate
2.New shadow-fleet designations shrink the compliant fleet further and lengthen average voyages. Module 4 · News-to-Barrels moderate
3.Floating storage building (+6 mb m/m) ties up additional tonnage. Module 1 · Balance Engine weak

Invalidation — this hypothesis is wrong if:

Sanctions enforcement visibly relaxes (designated vessels resume normal trading).
Floating storage unwinds quickly, releasing tonnage.
Newbuild ordering accelerates materially at the next round of yard slots.

Confidence (evidence weight)55%

Evidence-weight score — not a probability of profit, not a signal.

Directionally supported but every leg is second-order — hence monitoring status rather than active. Evidence-weight score only.

Instruments to research (not recommendations)

Tanker owner equities (see Investment Watchlist — monitored names, not recommendations)Baltic Exchange dirty tanker indices (licensed data)

Risk note: Freight is among the most volatile series in the complex; position sizing research matters more than direction here.

Methodology: A hypothesis is generated when the modules disagree — a dislocation between physical data, market structure, positioning or news. Each one is stated falsifiably: the evidence for it, the specific conditions that would invalidate it, and a confidence score. Confidence is an evidence-weight score (how much of the framework supports the hypothesis), NOT a probability of profit and NOT a signal. Instruments listed are markets to research further — never recommendations to buy or sell.

Hypotheses are retired when invalidated — and the invalidation is recorded, because a framework you can't falsify is marketing, not research.

Every evidence line links back to the module that produced it.All tools →