Trader Toolkit · Module 1 · Premium
Global Balance Engine
The entire oil balance on one screen: supply, demand and stocks with desk notes, price-impact flags, sources and timestamps. For traders whose edge is the fundamental balance.
Implied deficit of ~0.2 mb/d this quarter: OPEC+ restraint and flat US shale against resilient summer demand. Consistent with observed OECD stock draws. Sample assessment — verify against latest IEA/EIA balances.
Source: The Crude Oracle assessment on EIA/IEA public data · Updated: 2026-07-04 07:00 UTC · manual
Supply
| Metric | Latest | Δ Change | Trend | Price impact | Desk note | Source | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPEC crude production | 26.7mb/d | +0.1 m/m | ▲ | bearish | Slight compliance slippage above voluntary targets; watch the unwinding schedule. | OPEC MOMR (secondary sources, public summary)manual | 2026-07-01 |
| Non-OPEC supply | 71.4mb/d | +0.2 m/m | ▲ | bearish | Growth led by US, Brazil, Guyana and Canada; the structural counterweight to OPEC+ cuts. | IEA Oil Market Report (public summary)manual | 2026-07-01 |
| US shale (L48 tight oil) | 9.9mb/d | flat m/m | — | neutral | Capital discipline holding output flat despite supportive prices; rig count sideways. | EIA Drilling Productivity Reportmanual | 2026-06-30 |
| Sanctioned barrels (Russia / Iran / Venezuela) | ~4.6mb/d exports | -0.2 m/m | ▼ | bullish | Enforcement tightening on shadow-fleet tankers; discounts widening. Key swing variable. | Public tanker-tracking summaries / press reportingmanual | 2026-07-02 |
| Unplanned outages | 0.8mb/d | +0.3 w/w | ▲ | bullish | Field maintenance overruns plus a West African export terminal issue. | Manual monitoring of operator statementsmanual | 2026-07-03 |
| SPR releases / refills | +0.1mb/d refill | unchanged | — | bullish | US refilling slowly at price ceilings; strategic stocks now a demand source, not supply. | US DOE / EIA weekly datamanual | 2026-07-02 |
Demand
| Metric | Latest | Δ Change | Trend | Price impact | Desk note | Source | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refinery runs (global) | 83.6mb/d | +0.9 m/m | ▲ | bullish | Seasonal peak: post-turnaround ramp into the driving season, strong US utilisation (~93%). | IEA OMR / EIA weekly (public summaries)manual | 2026-07-02 |
| Product demand (global) | 103.2mb/d | +1.1 y/y | ▲ | bullish | Growth concentrated in non-OECD; petrochemical feedstocks and jet lead the barrel. | IEA Oil Market Report (public summary)manual | 2026-07-01 |
| China / India crude imports | 16.4mb/d combined | +0.4 m/m | ▲ | bullish | China restocking at attractive prices; India's structural growth intact (~5.2 mb/d). | Customs data / PPAC (public summaries)manual | 2026-06-30 |
| OECD demand | 45.5mb/d | -0.1 y/y | — | neutral | Mature-market plateau: efficiency and EVs offsetting income growth. | IEA Oil Market Report (public summary)manual | 2026-07-01 |
| Jet / diesel / gasoline demand | 7.6 / 28.3 / 26.9mb/d | jet +4% y/y | ◆ | neutral | Jet strongest (aviation recovery), gasoline seasonal-normal, diesel still the weak link. | IEA / IATA public datamanual | 2026-06-30 |
Stocks
| Metric | Latest | Δ Change | Trend | Price impact | Desk note | Source | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US commercial crude stocks | 443.7mb | -2.1 w/w | ▼ | bullish | Fourth draw in five weeks; ~11 mb below the five-year average. | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reportmanual | 2026-07-02 |
| Cushing (WTI delivery hub) | 24.8mb | -0.6 w/w | ▼ | bullish | Approaching operational minimums; supportive for WTI timespreads. | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reportmanual | 2026-07-02 |
| OECD industry stocks | 2,760mb | -15 m/m | ▼ | bullish | Below the five-year average in days-of-cover terms; the market's core tightness signal. | IEA Oil Market Report (public summary)manual | 2026-07-01 |
| Floating storage | 78mb | +6 m/m | ▲ | bearish | Rise driven by sanctioned cargoes seeking buyers, not a demand failure — read with care. | Public tanker-tracking summariesmanual | 2026-07-02 |
| US product stocks (gasoline + distillate) | 345mb | +1.8 w/w | ▲ | bearish | Gasoline build on strong refinery runs; distillates still below seasonal norms. | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reportmanual | 2026-07-02 |
How to read this table: the oil price is set at the margin by the gap between supply and demand, which shows up — with a lag — in stocks. When the implied balance is negative, inventories draw and the curve tends to firm; when positive, they build and the front weakens. Price impact flags read each row from the price's perspective: less supply or more demand is bullish, and vice versa. Values are indicative and manually updated from the cited public sources — verify before trading.