Trader Toolkit · Module 3 · Premium
Futures Curve & Spread Dashboard
Every spread that matters, marked three ways: cheap / fair / expensive, tightening / loosening, and supported or contradicted by the physical data in Modules 1 and 2. Structure first, flat price second.
Curve State
Both benchmarks backwardated; prompt tightness real, deferred strength suspect
Brent and WTI hold front-end backwardation consistent with drawing stocks (Module 1). WTI structure is the cleaner story — Cushing draws support it. Brent's 6-month strength looks rich against the Atlantic Basin length building in the Flow Map: prompt Brent is supported, deferred Brent is where the physical contradiction sits. Sample assessment.
Source: The Crude Oracle desk marks (indicative) · Updated: 2026-07-04 07:00 UTC · manual
Source: The Crude Oracle desk marks (indicative) · Updated: 2026-07-04 · manual
Cheap / fair / expensive versus the instrument's 5-year seasonal range.
Tightening / loosening / stable over the last 20 sessions.
✓ Supported / ✗ contradicted / ◆ mixed against the Balance Engine and Flow Map. Contradictions are where the trade — or the trap — lives.
Reading the board: structure before flat price. Backwardation with drawing stocks is an earned bull structure; backwardation against building physical length (see Brent 6-month) is borrowed strength. Cracks tell you which product is pulling crude; freight-adjusted arbs tell you whether the price map can physically clear. Marks are indicative desk values — verify with licensed exchange data before trading.
Flat price
| Instrument | Latest | Δ Change | Valuation | Momentum | Physical check | Desk note | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent front month (M1) | 78.42USD/bbl | +1.4 w/w | fair | tightening | supported | Mid five-year seasonal range; inventory draws and shipping risk premium both real (Modules 1–2). ICE-style desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| WTI front month (M1) | 74.18USD/bbl | +1.3 w/w | fair | tightening | supported | Cushing drawing toward operational minimums; export pull strong (US Gulf queue at 1.6σ). NYMEX-style desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
Timespreads
| Instrument | Latest | Δ Change | Valuation | Momentum | Physical check | Desk note | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent M1/M2 | +0.45USD/bbl | +0.10 w/w | fair | tightening | supported | Prompt backwardation firming with OECD stock draws — structure and stocks agree. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| Brent M2/M3 | +0.32USD/bbl | +0.05 w/w | fair | tightening | supported | Belly of the curve tracking the prompt; nothing anomalous. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| Brent 6-month (M1/M7) | +2.10USD/bbl | +0.25 w/w | expensive | tightening | contradicted | Rich vs the Atlantic Basin: WAF loadings 2.3σ above norm with unsold cargoes rerouting (Module 2). If that length lands, the back of this spread is vulnerable. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| WTI M1/M2 | +0.55USD/bbl | +0.12 w/w | fair | tightening | supported | Cushing draws doing exactly what they should to the prompt spread. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| WTI 6-month (M1/M7) | +2.60USD/bbl | +0.30 w/w | fair | tightening | supported | US structure cleaner than Brent's: hub draws plus export pull — the backwardation is earned. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
Quality & location differentials
| Instrument | Latest | Δ Change | Valuation | Momentum | Physical check | Desk note | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent–WTI | +4.24USD/bbl | +0.1 w/w | fair | stable | supported | Wide enough to keep the US export arb working — consistent with the loaded queue at US Gulf terminals. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| Brent–Dubai | +1.50USD/bbl | -0.2 w/w | cheap | loosening | supported | Narrow vs history because OPEC+ cuts are concentrated in medium-sour barrels — sour tightness props Dubai. Sweet-sour economics favour running sours where possible. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| Midland–Cushing (WTI) | +1.10USD/bbl | +0.15 w/w | fair | tightening | supported | Midland premium reflects coastal export pull; Permian takeaway capacity ample, so this is demand-led, not a bottleneck. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
Product cracks
| Instrument | Latest | Δ Change | Valuation | Momentum | Physical check | Desk note | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gasoline crack (vs Brent) | +22.0USD/bbl | +0.8 w/w | fair | tightening | mixed | Driving-season demand is real, but runs at 93% are rebuilding gasoline stocks (+1.8 mb w/w) — the crack is fighting its own refinery response. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| Diesel crack (vs Brent) | +16.0USD/bbl | -0.5 w/w | cheap | loosening | supported | Cheap for a reason: soft European industrial demand (Module 1's weak link). Value trap until PMIs turn — cheap + supported is not a buy signal by itself. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| Jet crack (vs Brent) | +19.0USD/bbl | +0.6 w/w | fair | tightening | supported | Aviation recovery intact (RPKs above 2019); the strongest structural story in the barrel. Desk mark (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
Freight-adjusted arbitrage
| Instrument | Latest | Δ Change | Valuation | Momentum | Physical check | Desk note | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI (US Gulf) → NW Europe, freight-adjusted | +0.35USD/bbl net margin | +0.10 w/w | fair | tightening | supported | Arb open after freight: matches the demand-pull vessel queue at US Gulf terminals (Module 2, 1.6σ). Desk calculation (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| WTI (US Gulf) → Singapore, freight-adjusted | -0.20USD/bbl net margin | -0.25 w/w | cheap | loosening | contradicted | Shut on paper, yet cargoes still fixing East — the contradiction resolves via freight: the TD3C spike is fleet-driven (Module 2, 1.2σ) and should normalise. Watch for the arb to reopen rather than flows to stop. Desk calculation (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |
| West Africa → Asia, freight-adjusted | -0.45USD/bbl net margin | -0.30 w/w | cheap | loosening | supported | Negative and consistent with the 2.3σ WAF loading anomaly: barrels loaded without a natural buyer. Expect wider WAF differentials until this clears. Desk calculation (indicative)manual | 2026-07-04 |