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The Crude Oracle

Trader Toolkit · Module 2

Physical Flow Map

Tankers loaded and discharged, destination changes, dark AIS gaps, floating storage, congestion and freight — with a TankerMap hull on the map and a desk note attached to that position.

Flow Read of the Day

Atlantic Basin lengthening: West African barrels are loading faster than Asia is pulling them

Loadings are firm out of the Middle East Gulf and West Africa while Chinese discharge activity cools from June's restocking pace. The gap is showing up in floating storage and softer Atlantic differentials rather than headline flat price — classic early-cycle looseness in the physical market. Sample assessment.

Source: The Crude Oracle desk assessment of public flow summaries · Updated: 2026-07-04 07:00 UTC · manual

Watched vessel · TankerMap

GEM DARCY

Public AIS for the hull in the TankerMap link, with a Crude Oracle note attached to the same position. The AIS is delayed. The note is a desk reading, not a second feed.

HormuzBab el-MandebMalaccaCape of Good HopeGEM DARCYDESK LAYEROne hull on the Cape-side reading314° NW · Unknown estimate · 0%Recent fixes

Land outline: Natural Earth, public domain. Position: TankerMap AIS, delayed. Not for navigation.

delayed

3.5093° S, 20.6883° W

Desk grid: open ocean

Speed
14.1 kn
Course
314° NW
Destination
Not reported
Cargo flag
Unknown estimate · 0%
Draught
12.6 m
Deadweight
74,706 DWT
Type
Crude Oil Tanker · Panamax-size
Flag / built
Marshall Islands · 2026
IMO / MMSI
1076599 · 538011795
Nameplate
0.55 mb crude

TankerMap estimate — not a bill of lading. Nameplate is deadweight × 7.37 barrels per tonne of crude — a ceiling, not a measured lifting. Draught observed 2026-10-09 07:09 UTC.

AIS observed 2026-10-16 07:01 UTC · 7 track fixes · retrieved 2026-10-16 13:13 UTC

GEM DARCY on TankerMap →Vessel page →

Attached desk layer

One hull on the Cape-side reading

GEM DARCY is the hull behind the TankerMap share link: a single crude tanker, not a fleet. The AIS layer is where she was last seen. This note is what that observation is allowed to mean.

  • Destination: If the AIS destination is blank, this note does not invent a discharge port or a buyer. A filled-in destination replaces the guesswork.
  • Cargo flag: TankerMap's loaded or ballast mark is a draught-class estimate. The confidence on the card is theirs. It is not a bill of lading and it is not a measured cargo.
  • Heading ray: The gold dashed line is 48 hours of the reported course and speed, drawn as geometry. It is not a filed route and it is not an ETA.
  • What one hull cannot do: This vessel does not update the anomaly radar. Those sigma scores stay desk estimates from public summaries until a licensed fleet feed is connected.

So what: Check a southwest heading and a loaded-state estimate against an east-to-west barrel. A turn toward Malacca, or an eastbound destination, retires that check. The position stays a delayed AIS observation either way.

Anomaly radar

Every flagged flow is explained, not just scored: what deviated, by how many standard deviations, which factors moved with it, and what it means for positioning.

Alert2.3σ vs 30-day norm

West African loadings running hot into a cooling Asian bid

Observed
4.8 mb/d loaded (7-day avg)
Baseline
4.1 mb/d (30-day mean)

This flow is unusual because exports from West Africa are 2.3 standard deviations above their 30-day normal while refinery demand in Asia — the marginal buyer of these grades — is falling: Chinese teapot margins have turned negative and run cuts are being nominated for August.

Contributing factors
  • WAF export programmes: August loading programmes at a 6-month high; two deferred July cargoes rolled forward.
  • Asian refinery demand: Teapot margins negative; state refiners well-covered from June restocking.
  • Suezmax freight WAF→East: Rates firming as more cargoes chase the long-haul route — consistent with unsold length.

So what: Unsold Atlantic barrels typically pressure prompt differentials first and Dated structure second. Watch for WAF grades trading at wider discounts and any build in floating storage off Singapore. Not a flat-price signal on its own.

Source: Manual assessment of public flow summariesUpdated: 2026-07-04manual
Watch1.8σ vs 30-day norm

Dark AIS activity rising on the eastbound sanctioned route

Observed
310 vessel-days dark (7-day)
Baseline
230 vessel-days (30-day mean)

AIS gaps around the Malacca approaches are 1.8 standard deviations above normal at the same time as Iranian export loadings have ticked up — the classic signature of sanctioned barrels moving via ship-to-ship transfer rather than a data outage.

Contributing factors
  • Iranian export loadings: Loadings up ~0.2 mb/d month-on-month on public estimates.
  • STS transfer activity: More rendezvous patterns observed off Riau and in the South China Sea.
  • Enforcement pressure: New designations of shadow-fleet tankers pushing more of the trade dark.

So what: More sanctioned supply is reaching the market than headline tracker numbers show — a hidden bearish offset to the official balance. If enforcement bites, these barrels reprice quickly; that is upside optionality on the risk premium.

Source: Manual assessment of public flow summariesUpdated: 2026-07-03manual
Watch1.6σ vs 30-day norm

US Gulf export queue building while Cushing draws

Observed
38 vessel-days waiting (7-day)
Baseline
27 vessel-days (30-day mean)

Port congestion at US Gulf crude terminals is 1.6 standard deviations above normal while Cushing inventories are drawing — vessels are queuing because export demand for US barrels is strong, not because cargoes are stranded.

Contributing factors
  • US crude exports: Weekly exports near 4.5 mb/d as Brent-WTI stays wide enough to work.
  • Cushing stocks: Hub drawing toward operational minimums — barrels moving to the coast.
  • Terminal maintenance: One VLCC berth on reduced capacity, amplifying the queue.

So what: A demand-pull queue is WTI-supportive: it tightens domestic availability and firms timespreads. Distinguish from supply-glut congestion, which would show discharges backing up instead.

Source: Manual assessment of public flow summariesUpdated: 2026-07-03manual
Info1.2σ vs 30-day norm

TD3C freight firming without a matching cargo surge

Observed
WS 62 (TD3C, MEG→China)
Baseline
WS 54 (30-day mean)

VLCC rates on the benchmark Middle East–China route are 1.2 standard deviations above normal, but loaded cargo counts are flat — the move is fleet-driven, not demand-driven: vessels absorbed into floating storage and longer sanctioned-trade voyages are shrinking effective supply.

Contributing factors
  • Loaded cargo count MEG→East: Fixture volumes within normal range.
  • Floating storage: +6 mb month-on-month tying up tonnage (see Balance Engine).
  • Voyage distances: Rerouting and dark-fleet inefficiency lengthening average voyages.

So what: Freight strength without cargo strength is a tanker-equity signal more than a crude signal — effective fleet supply is tightening. For crude, it modestly widens East-West arbs.

Source: Manual assessment of public flow summariesUpdated: 2026-07-04manual

Tankers loaded — by origin

Tankers loaded — by origin
MetricLatestΔ ChangeTrendPrice impactDesk noteSourceUpdated
Middle East Gulf loadings17.6mb/d+0.2 w/w▲bearishSteady OPEC+ programmes; Basrah exports recovering after terminal maintenance.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-04
West Africa loadings4.8mb/d+0.7 w/w▲bearishAnomaly flagged: 2.3σ above 30-day norm into a soft Asian bid — see radar.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-04
US Gulf loadings (exports)4.5mb/d+0.3 w/w▲neutralArb open; queue building at terminals is demand-pull, not congestion-glut.EIA weekly / public summariesmanual2026-07-03
Russia seaborne loadings3.3mb/d-0.2 w/w▼bullishBaltic loadings dip on enforcement friction; Pacific steady. Watch dark fleet.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-04
North Sea loadings1.9mb/dflat w/w—neutralNormal programmes; Forties stream steady — anchors Dated Brent physical.Public loading programmesmanual2026-07-04

Tankers discharged — by destination

Tankers discharged — by destination
MetricLatestΔ ChangeTrendPrice impactDesk noteSourceUpdated
China discharges11.0mb/d-0.4 w/w▼bearishCooling from June restocking pace; port stocks comfortable, teapot margins negative.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-04
India discharges5.2mb/d+0.1 w/w▲bullishSteady structural pull; discounted barrels remain the preferred diet.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-04
Europe (ARA + Med) discharges8.9mb/d+0.2 w/w▲bullishPost-turnaround refinery restart pull; diesel imports still needed.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-03
US discharges (imports)6.5mb/dflat w/w—neutralHeavy Canadian and Latin grades for Gulf Coast refiners; normal seasonal pattern.EIA weeklymanual2026-07-02
Singapore / SE Asia discharges3.1mb/d-0.1 w/w▼bearishRegional refining margins mid-cycle; some cargoes idling offshore — watch storage.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-04

Flow signals — routing, storage, congestion & freight

Flow signals — routing, storage, congestion & freight
MetricLatestΔ ChangeTrendPrice impactDesk noteSourceUpdated
Destination changes (in-transit)14cargoes/wk+5 w/w▲neutralAbove-normal re-routing, mostly WAF cargoes swapping East for NW Europe — unsold length repositioning.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-04
Dark AIS gaps310vessel-days/wk+35% vs norm▲bearishAnomaly flagged at 1.8σ — sanctioned flows going dark via STS; see radar.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-03
Floating storage (crude ≥7 days)78mb+6 m/m▲bearishBuild is concentrated in sanctioned grades seeking buyers — quality-specific, not a global glut.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-02
Port congestion (crude terminals)142vessel-days+12% w/w▲neutralUS Gulf demand-pull queue (1.6σ) plus routine weather delays in the MEG.Public flow summaries (indicative)manual2026-07-03
VLCC freight (TD3C MEG→China)WS 62worldscale+8 pts w/w▲neutralFleet-driven firmness (1.2σ) — storage and long routes absorbing tonnage; cargo count flat.Public freight assessments (indicative)manual2026-07-04
Clean tanker freight (MR Atlantic)WS 148worldscale+4 pts w/w▲neutralProduct arbs open USG→Europe on diesel pull; supportive for product tanker owners.Public freight assessments (indicative)manual2026-07-04

Methodology: Anomaly detection compares each observed flow metric against its 30-day rolling baseline. Deviation is expressed in standard deviations (σ). Anomalies are flagged at |σ| ≥ 1.5 (watch) and |σ| ≥ 2.0 (alert), then explained by cross-referencing the supply, demand and freight factors moving at the same time. Manual assessment on sample data — methodology carries over unchanged to licensed feeds.

Commercial-grade tanker tracking (Kpler, Vortexa class) requires licensing; until a licensed feed is connected, the anomaly tables are desk estimates from public summaries and are labelled accordingly. The watched vessel is the exception: position, speed, course and the cargo flag are read from TankerMap's public API for that hull and labelled delayed. The desk layer attached to the hull is an indicative note, not a second AIS feed. The anomaly framework — baseline, sigma, factors, implication — is feed-agnostic and carries over unchanged when a licensed fleet feed lands.

Pair with Module 1 — the Balance Engine — to see where these flows land in stocks.
Balance Engine →All tools →