Simulated paper trading · No client money · Not investment advice
Crude Oracle Paper Book
A forward-only AI crude desk where every trade's reasoning is timestamped before the market grades it, and it has to beat a plain systematic baseline to earn its keep.
The process is the product
Most AI trading demos are backtests the model has already memorised. This one runs forward only, inputs frozen, model pinned, decisions timestamped, measured against a no-AI control.
- Step 1
Collect and freeze
EIA stocks, CFTC positioning, timestamped headlines and NYMEX bars are saved exactly as the agents will see them, with a SHA-256 manifest.
- Step 2
Four analysts
Fundamentals, positioning, news and technical agents each read only the frozen data for their role and must state what would change their mind.
- Step 3
Bull versus bear
Two researchers argue the strongest honest case each way from the four reports. No new data.
- Step 4
PM proposes, code disposes
The PM agent emits 0–3 trades as strict JSON. Deterministic risk code sizes, accepts or rejects each one and logs the reason. The model never touches the order API.
- Step 5
Commit and timestamp
The decision file is committed, pushed and anchored with OpenTimestamps before any order is sent.
- Step 6
Baseline control
A plain trend-plus-carry sleeve runs on the same schedule through the same risk code. The only claim made is AI sleeves versus baseline.
Pre-registered rules, risk limits and every decision file are public in the repository under paper-book/. See also the virtual portfolio.
Book status
Updated 2026-10-08 06:18 UTC · Net figures subtract 1 tick slippage per side plus USD 2.5 commission per side. · Sample size is labelled on every figure.
Performance figures are withheld until 60 NYMEX trading days
The process is public from day one: every run, its frozen inputs, the PM proposal, the risk check and the timestamp proof. Numbers follow only once the sample is large enough to mean something, and they are labelled with the sample size every time.
NAV, net of costs (100 = inception)
No marks yet. The curve starts on the first settlement after go-live.
Risk used against each limit
Step-down at -6% (sizes halved), stop at -10% (AI sleeves flattened). Limits are code, not discretion: paper-book/risk/limits.yaml.
Open positions
Flat.
Calls versus prints — EIA crude stocks (kbbl, negative = draw)
The first forecast is graded on the first EIA Wednesday after go-live.
Decision log — every run, misses included
No runs yet. The first scheduled run writes the first entry here, committed and timestamped before any order is sent.