Paper Trading Demonstration · Virtual Capital Only
A transparent paper-trading demonstration showing how daily oil, gas and energy intelligence can be turned into a disciplined investment process.
Inception 2026-07-01 · Updated 2026-07-04 · All values simulated and indicative. Simulated performance does not guarantee future results.
The objective is to test whether The Crude Oracle's daily intelligence process can outperform standard passive or generic oil-market tools over time through better data, risk control and decision discipline.
The Crude Oracle does not promise profits. It gives oil investors and traders a clearer intelligence process.
Two entries from the public journal — one open hypothesis trade, one closed trade with its lesson. Full rationale, sizing and risk levels are in the portfolio dashboard — free.
Diesel cracks undervalued relative to refinery outage risk: Rotterdam outage (400 kb/d), distillate stocks below seasonal average, clean freight tightening, crack not yet repriced — against a near-record managed-money short (squeeze fuel).
Invalidation: Refinery returns inside two weeks; distillate stocks build two consecutive weeks; freight normalises.
Target reached at range top ahead of the weekly EIA print — took the tactical gain rather than hold event risk. Decision label: Exit.
Lesson: The process worked: entry on inventory-draw signal (Module 1), exit at pre-defined target. Not holding through binary events is a rule, not a prediction.
One process every trading day: prices, supply, demand, inventories, risk — then decisions.
Every paper trade is journaled with thesis, risk and invalidation before entry — no hindsight edits.
Position caps, 1–2% risk per trade, a drawdown ladder and a minimum cash reserve, enforced in writing.
Wins and losses both published. No hidden losses, no cherry-picked results.
Each decision links to the module that produced it — balance, flows, curve, positioning, news.
Benchmarked monthly against Brent, WTI and a broad energy ETF, drawdowns included.
Detailed trade rationale, full watchlist, position sizing, risk levels, daily updates, benchmark comparison, source links, company notes and upcoming catalysts.